#SVB

Morning Commentary – 05/04/2023

The FOMC delivered its tenth—and likely final—rate hike of this cycle yesterday, bringing the overnight lending rate to a range between 5% and 5.25%.  While very little was changed in the policy statement, they replaced “[t]he Committee anticipates that some…”...

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Morning Commentary – 05/03/2023

So it seems the dislocations in the banking sector have not yet fully played themselves out.  In what should come as little surprise to anyone with a history in this business, contagion is difficult to stem and does not now seem limited to SVB, Sovereign, and...

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The Big Picture – April 27th, 2023

The Big Picture – April 27th, 2023

Asset markets are behaving as if it’s a foregone conclusion that inflation is falling, the economy will slow, and the Fed will reverse course sometime this Fall. Based on current indicators, that’s a reasonable call. But there’s something troubling about markets all...

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Morning Commentary – 04/25/2023

Treasuries enjoyed support throughout the session yesterday, despite the lack of incremental or market moving news.  Yields opened lower and continued to trend from the upper left to lower right as the day progressed before closing 6 to 8 basis points below...

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Morning Commentary – 04/24/2023

With the exception of a few bouts of localized volatility—typical reactions to 2nd and 3rd tier data—bond markets were reasonably calm last week.  This was largely in keeping with expectations given the overall lack of meaningful economic releases and the next...

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Morning Commentary – 04/21/2023

Disappointing data helped Treasuries migrate deeper into the range yesterday, just a couple of days following a meaningful yield challenge of the top.  The Philly Fed Index dropped to -31.3 vs expectations of -19.3 and marked one of the lowest prints in 14...

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Morning Commentary – 04/20/2023

As mentioned yesterday, hotter inflation numbers out of the UK precipitated selling pressure in US Treasuries overnight and momentum managed to press yields higher through mid-morning.  However, the afternoon session saw buyers emerge and helped undo the early...

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Morning Commentary – 04/17/2023

Treasuries sold off to close out the week, though the inspiration for the weakness is less than clear.  The first round of data—headlined by retail sales—missed forecast and while this would typically produce a bond-friendly reaction, just the opposite...

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