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Morning Commentary – 06/01/2023

A lower inflation read out of the Eurozone set the tone domestically in bonds yesterday with Treasuries rallying right out of the gates.  Chicago PMI data undergird the bullish bias by logging its lowest print since November of last year, though positive job...

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Morning Commentary – 05/31/2023

It has never been completely obvious whether the implications of no debt ceiling deal would represent a net positive or negative for Treasuries.  Give me a side and I can probably make a pretty reasonable defense.  However, with headlines breaking that House...

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The Big Picture – Memorial Day Weekend 2023

The Big Picture – Memorial Day Weekend 2023

These are challenging times in this business, I don’t need to tell you that.  One of the very few things I dislike about this business is that so much of what most people associate with “success” or “failure” is outside of our control. We have no influence over...

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Morning Commentary 05/26/2023

The price action in Treasuries certainly outpaced the relevant new data on offer, suggesting a combination of liquidity (or lack thereof) and technicals had feature roles.  After breaking through the top of the range earlier this week, the 10yr set its sights on...

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Morning Commentary – 05/24/2023

It is only Wednesday, yet the volume of Out of Office emails I am getting suggests summer vacation season is already in full swing.  For those who tapped out early, they didn’t miss much yesterday.  With minimal economic data on the docket, headline watching...

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The Big Picture – Memorial Day Weekend 2023

The Big Picture – May 21st, 2023

The Big Picture - May 21, 2023 My apologies for the hiatus, but here’s what the last few weeks have made clear: nothing. Inconsistent economic data, lingering uncertainty over small/regional banks, and a looming debt ceiling fiasco have delivered nothing but confusion...

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Morning Commentary – 05/19/2023

Treasury yields broke through the top of the range yesterday as a confluence of events led to bearish price action.  The morning’s data was generally better than expected as jobless claims fell to a 9 week low, while the Philly Fed regional index experienced much...

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Morning Commentary – 05/17/2023

Good morning.  Treasury yields rose yesterday following Retail Sales figures that were slightly worse than expected—at least from a headline perspective.  The components, however, proved sufficiently solid to quell notions of a softening economy.  When...

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Morning Commentary – 05/16/2023

Another session with little to report.  Monday came and went with Treasuries smack in the middle of the range and little impetus to untether themselves from that area.  Several Fed members had speaking engagements and while each provided their own nuanced...

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