Richmond

Morning Commentary – 09/22/2022

The FOMC delivered a hawkish 75bp hike yesterday while reinforcing its commitment to getting inflation back to a sustainable 2% level.  I say it was a hawkish hike, because while the 75bps was widely expected—taking the overnight rate to a range of 3% to...

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Morning Commentary – 09/19/2022

With limited data and the big FOMC decision on tap for later this week, traders called for an unofficial early close on Friday—at least that is what was reflected in the price action.  By lunchtime, activity had flatlined and yields ended the day within a whisker...

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Morning Commentary – 09/16/2022

The 10yr logged another 6 basis point intraday, highlighting the illiquidity and associated choppy price action that I referenced and Tuck expounded on yesterday.  Most of the volatility occurred around the 8:30am economic releases after which yields reverted to...

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Morning Commentary – 09/15/2022

From a close to close perspective, not much happened in Treasuries yesterday as yields at the longer end of the curve fell by only a fraction of a basis point.  However, intraday volatility remained high and at one point the 10yr nearly matched the upper bound of...

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Morning Commentary – 09/14/2022

Yesterday’s CPI data was one of the most anticipated economic releases in quite some time, particularly given its scrutiny by the Fed as well as its proximity to the next FOMC meeting.  Market participants and economists alike had been anticipating a slight month...

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Morning Commentary – 09/12/2022

Despite occasional periods of respite, rates continued their migration higher last week amidst consistent headlines from Fed officials (and foreign central bankers as well) that inflation remains the paramount concern.  The 10yr yield added another 12.5 basis...

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Morning Commentary – 09/08/2022

Treasuries found their footing yesterday with yields effectively reversing Tuesday’s rise.  Incremental data was fairly limited and Fed speakers generally kept to the script, so it’s best to view the move as breather from recent bearishness rather than a...

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Morning Commentary – 09/07/2022

Rates opened under pressure yesterday and things only got worse as the day progressed.  Better than expected data (service sector ISMs), corporate supply, and limited technical support helped push the 10yr yield to 3.34%--just 13 basis points below the high print...

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Morning Commentary – 09/06/2022

Summer has officially drawn to a close, and with the Labor Day weekend behind us trading desks have returned to full staffing levels.  Right out of the gates, a bearish bias has returned to bonds as Friday’s (somewhat counterintuitive) rally has been reversed...

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Morning Commentary – 09/02/2022

Good morning.  The calendar flip to a new month did little to shift the bearish sentiment that has descended upon the bond market.  Any hope to that end was quickly extinguished with the release of better than expected jobless claims and ISM manufacturing...

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