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The Big Picture – March 23rd, 2023
The focus lately has been on banks, and the massive amount of liquidity they have drawn from the Fed’s discount window is seen as cause for alarm (see chart below). I think there’s another less worrisome explanation and that is that after 2008, banks learned that it’s...
The Big Picture – March 21st, 2023
“We’re all quite mad here, you’ll fit right in.” – Alice in Wonderland If you wonder why the Fed would even consider another rate increase as banks hoard cash and lending standards for everything from autos to credit cards to business loans are tightening rapidly,...
The Big Picture – March 13th 2023
A few weeks ago, I remarked that it was strange that after a 300+ basis point increase in rates, nothing had “broken.” There were no hedge fund blow-ups, no huge trading losses, and no failed banks. I wondered if it was a matter of time, or if the industry and...
Shining a Spotlight on Top Producers
Congratulations to Jeremy for being our top producer in February '23 (Volume and Units!)
The Big Picture – March 6th 2023
Each week, I try find unusual perspectives that are important to our industry but might be a little less obvious or not as well covered by the media. Last week’s observation comes from one of my favorite economists, David Rosenberg, and it’s a doozy. The recent...
The Big Picture – Febuary 8th 2023
Last week’s surprise payroll data gave further support to the Fed’s position that their work isn’t done and won’t be for quite some time. However, the data might not be an accurate reflection of employment conditions, and many economists see large seasonal and other...
The Big Picture
For as long as I can remember, “Don’t fight the Fed” has been a universally held axiom which means no matter how right you think you are, the Fed can do the opposite for a lot longer than you can stay solvent. And the Fed has issued many warnings that rates will...
Industry Update – January 18th
I’ve seen predictions for where home prices will finish in 2023 that range from +5% to -25%. Here’s why I lean toward the upper end of that range, especially in our markets.
Welcome to 2023
Welcome to 2023. I’d like start-off by congratulating Abby for closing our first loan of the year! The first of many for her and for HomeFactor Financial. We all know that mortgage is cyclical, but it is also incredibly seasonal. The chart below shows just how much...
For Mortgage Companies, This Time is Different
In a recent HousingWire article, mortgage M&A experts predicted that as many as 33% of the largest independent mortgage banks would not survive to the end of 2023. The experts expect large numbers of mergers, acquisitions, or outright failures. In the...