Hance Thurston

Morning Commentary – 10/05/2022

Yields continued to fall yesterday, though the rate of descent was tame by Monday’s standard.  On a micro level, the rally was warranted as the market responded to a much weaker than expected Job Openings Labor Turnover Survey.  Historically this has been a...

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Morning Commentary – 10/04/2022

A confluence of events precipitated a sharp rally in bonds over the last couple of days, with yesterday’s session about as sharp as it gets.  The last leg of the selloff—sparked by a surprisingly out of touch decision by Britain’s government to push through a...

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Morning Commentary – 09/29/2022

Bond buyers have been sitting on their hands for weeks, content to let bearish pressures continue to push yields higher.  As the 10yr approached 4%, however, participants encountered the conflicting emotions of fear and greed—fearful that the selloff could...

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Morning Commentary – 09/28/2022

Green shoots in bonds quickly withered yesterday, dashing hopes the overnight rally was the beginning of a sustainable reversal.  The 10yr opened a full 12 basis points lower, but had inked new highs and crested 4% before traders put pencils down.  Slightly...

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Morning Commentary – 09/27/2022

There is little positive to say about yesterday’s trading session, other than it is over.  Prices cratered across asset classes as the impact of errant fiscal policy in the UK (cutting taxes while ostensibly fighting inflation) spilled over into the US. ...

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Morning Commentary – 09/26/2022

Treasuries opened under significant pressure on Friday with the 10yr yield approaching 3.80%.  The balance of the session, however, saw a choppy recovery and resulted in yields that were unchanged to very slightly better versus Thursday’s close.  All in all...

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Morning Commentary – 09/22/2022

The FOMC delivered a hawkish 75bp hike yesterday while reinforcing its commitment to getting inflation back to a sustainable 2% level.  I say it was a hawkish hike, because while the 75bps was widely expected—taking the overnight rate to a range of 3% to...

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Morning Commentary – 09/19/2022

With limited data and the big FOMC decision on tap for later this week, traders called for an unofficial early close on Friday—at least that is what was reflected in the price action.  By lunchtime, activity had flatlined and yields ended the day within a whisker...

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Morning Commentary – 09/16/2022

The 10yr logged another 6 basis point intraday, highlighting the illiquidity and associated choppy price action that I referenced and Tuck expounded on yesterday.  Most of the volatility occurred around the 8:30am economic releases after which yields reverted to...

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Morning Commentary – 09/15/2022

From a close to close perspective, not much happened in Treasuries yesterday as yields at the longer end of the curve fell by only a fraction of a basis point.  However, intraday volatility remained high and at one point the 10yr nearly matched the upper bound of...

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